UKRAINE - Wind of Changes: A Personal view by Sergiy Orlov (2004)
The world has come to know this beautiful picturesque country - in Eastern Europe beside the Black Sea - only because of the great tensions
over the disputed result of the autumn Presidential election.
A lot of politicians in Europe, America and CIS countries look upon this election in Ukraine as a kind of competition for influence in the region between the USA and "Europe", on the one side, and Russia on the other. Just listen to the words of Russian politicians and political scientists: "We can lose Ukraine", " We should not give Ukraine to the West" etc. (Russian TV channels). They look upon Ukraine as being like a protectorate, within Russia's own sphere of influence.
But what about Ukrainians themselves?? Some believe that if opposition candidate Victor Yushchenko (orange coloured supporters) comes to power, the USA will rule the country; there will be no use of the Russian language ( a vast part of Ukrainian population is still Russian-speaking); and mines in the Donbass region will be closed. They fear that Ukraine will go down the road of the former Yugoslavia or Iraq. This view results from the propaganda of the? pro-power candidate and acting PM, Victor Yanukovich's (blue-white coloured supporters).
Other Ukrainians want changes at any cost - they cannot tolerate "gangster " power any more. The majority of them may not positively support Yushchenko, but they are against lies, falsifications and crime. And it is really a good opportunity for the opposition to try to take power.
Peaceful debate in Ukraine
Revolts and strikes are not the best ways to change the situation: "geniuses develop the revolutions, fanatics realise them, and rascals use the results". On the 22nd of November a lot of intelligent people were shocked by Yushchenko's call for a total strike. The greatest achievement of Ukrainian's 13-year independence - peace - seemed to be under threat. Yet look at Kiev's streets - peace and order among the strikers. No alcohol, no beatings. Opponents mainly peacefully exchange their views (see photo above).
People do want to live in a united Ukraine.
It is sad to hear from some officials (heads of regional authorities) the initiative to proclaim South-East Ukrainian Autonomy. The Criminal Code of Ukraine considers such acts as a crime against the State. Those officials were not authorised by regional and local Councils and communities to act in this way. The explanation of their actions is that those officials are appointed to their posts by President, but not elected. So, they are automatically mostly pro-power and cannot do anything without consent of the President.
The situation in Ukraine is very complicated. It is hard to resolve the problem. Negotiations become deadlocked by one side or the other. Sometimes one has the? feeling that there is the third (and even fourth) force behind every side: one day they agree on certain steps; the next day they talk about different things.
Now we have the decision of the Supreme Court of Ukraine, regarding the legitimacy of the results of the elections' second round. Let us hope that it will be respected.
One of the opposition's achievements is the decision of Parliament on the 1st of December to recognise the Government's actions as improper. The resignation of the Government should follow. But the Yanukovich faction has refused to do that and appealed to the Constitutional Court.
So, the solution to the deadlock is being delayed by those in power. They hope that people in the streets will become exhausted and go home.
Maybe there is no other, legitimate, way to change the situation, except by revolution? I do not think so. There are still a lot of people really against Yushchenko personally; and that can divide the country.
It is good sign that some key persons in Parliament and Supreme Court are constructive and impartial even under the pressure of power. Thank all of you who support Ukrainians in this complicated situation without dividing them into "orange" or "blue-white" - we are integral nation.
The same situation may well arise in other "new democracies". And I wish peaceful and democratic changes to all citizens of those countries.
(The John Smith Memorial Trust does not take sides in political controversy in member countries)